The Digital Press

AI development is shifting from scaling large generalist models toward smaller, specialized agents focused on reasoning and reinforcement learning. By 2026, generative AI could see a major commercial boom as accuracy improves, while by 2030, artificial general intelligence (AGI) may emerge as small, imperfect but fundamentally different systems.

Why it matters: AI progress hinges on accuracy and specialized training over sheer size, enabling safer, industry-ready applications by mid-decade.

The big picture: The first AGI will be small, flawed, and unlike current models, representing a conceptual breakthrough rather than immediate commercial success.

The stakes: Early AGI systems will underperform benchmarks and may confuse users, but could show signs of emerging identity and individuality.

Commenters say: Many express concern about the societal implications and express skepticism or pessimism about the future shaped by AI advancements.