The Digital Press

Andrej Karpathy argues that artificial general intelligence (AGI) is still about a decade away, highlighting key limitations in current models like lack of continual learning and cognitive deficits. He draws parallels between AI progress and historical technological growth, suggesting AGI will integrate gradually into economic productivity rather than cause a sudden explosion.

Why it matters: AGI’s development pace impacts expectations for AI’s economic and societal effects over the next decade.

The big picture: AI progress is a continuation of centuries-long technological growth, unlikely to cause abrupt economic shifts.

The stakes: Overhyping AGI timelines risks misaligned investments and public misunderstanding of AI capabilities.

Commenters say: Many emphasize the recurring "AGI is a decade away" trope, cautioning against hype and noting that current AI lacks true general intelligence. Some compare AGI to fusion energy—always predicted but perpetually distant.